Cellar-dwellers wrap up set at PNC Park

Baseball Betting Lines

09/05/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of struggling one-win pitchers square off today at PNC Park when the host Pittsburgh Pirates and visiting Washington Nationals meet in the rubber game of a three-game weekend series.

The Nationals dropped Friday's opener but came back to win game two on Saturday, as Ivan Rodriguez hit a two-run homer and knocked in four en route to a 9-2 verdict. John Lannan (7-6) struck out seven in seven strong innings, walked one and allowed a run on five hits to win for the fifth time in six starts for the Nationals, who snapped a three-game losing streak.

Ian Desmond added three hits and an RBI to the win.

Paul Maholm's (7-14) troubles continued, as the southpaw slid to a fifth loss in six starts after surrendering eight hits and seven runs in 4 1/3 frames.

Andrew McCutchen's 13th home run of the season highlighted the Pirates' offense on the way to their sixth loss in the last eight games. Pittsburgh, which has not finished a season above .500 since 1992, has now lost at least 90 games for the sixth straight season.

New Jersey-born right-hander Charlie Morton gets the call for Pittsburgh with a chance to earn his first since early May. The 26-year-old defeated the Chicago Cubs to improve to 1-5 back on May 5, but has since gone 0-5 while also spending time in the minors.

He was recalled in time for an Aug. 29 outing at Milwaukee, in which he was ripped for nine hits and eight runs in just 3 1/3 innings of an 8-4 loss.

Morton, a third-round pick of the Atlanta Braves in 2002, lost his lone career start against Washington after allowing six hits and four runs in six innings.

For the Nationals, fellow former Atlanta draft pick Jason Marquis also aims for his second win of 2010. Marquis, a supplemental draft selection of the Braves in 1996, was a 15-game winner for Colorado last season before signing a deal with Washington as a free agent. It hasn't worked out so well on the East Coast, with Marquis battling injury and ineffectiveness while going 1-7 through eight starts.

He did win in his most recent outing, however, scattering seven hits and allowing three runs in 5 2/3 innings of a 9-3 triumph at Florida on Aug. 30. It was just the third time in eight starts that Marquis pitched at least five innings.

He is 10-6 lifetime against the Pirates in 25 appearances with a 3.66 earned run average.

Washington swept a three-game set from the Pirates back in June .

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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